The Meloni government faces its deepest crisis yet after losing a justice reform referendum 54-46, losing Tourism Minister Santanchè and facing questions over its pro-Trump foreign policy stance.
Giorgia Meloni came into this week looking like a prime minister who had defied Italy’s tradition of political instability. She leaves it looking like something considerably more fragile.
Her defeat in the March 22-23 constitutional referendum on justice reform has thrust the Italian leader into the toughest phase of her premiership, with her authority weakened, her reform programme in tatters and no easy way to regain the initiative. The right-wing coalition’s resounding loss punctured the aura of political invincibility she had carefully cultivated since taking office in 2022.
The “No” camp won around 53.5 percent of the vote against the government’s 46.5 percent, with a higher-than-expected turnout of more than 58 percent, a figure that transformed the technical vote on judicial reform into something closer to a plebiscite on Meloni’s leadership. The reform itself would have separated the career paths of judges and public prosecutors, restructured the judiciary’s oversight body and introduced selection by lottery for some of its members. Critics argued it risked concentrating too much power in the executive branch and failed to address Italy’s most pressing legal problem: the glacial pace of its court system.
The damage did not stop at the ballot box. Within 48 hours of the result, Tourism Minister Daniela Santanchè submitted her resignation in a letter that opened with the single word “I obey”, leaving the government with a ministerial vacancy and an uncomfortable question hanging over the coalition’s internal cohesion.
Even so, analysts are careful not to declare the Meloni era over. In a Youtrend poll, 37 percent of those who voted “No” told researchers she should remain in office. “This wasn’t an opposition victory so much as a victory for the judiciary,” said Massimiliano Panarari, a political analyst at the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia. The opposition, meanwhile, is energised but fractured. The centre-left Democratic Party and the 5-Star Movement remain deeply divided over key policy questions, particularly on foreign policy, a fragmentation that could tempt Meloni to call a snap election and turn the tables before her opponents coalesce.
There is a further pressure building from outside Italy’s borders. Meloni’s close alignment with Donald Trump, a hallmark of her foreign policy since she came to power, is becoming a liability as Trump’s approval ratings in Italy deteriorate sharply, particularly following the US-Iran conflict and growing concern about Washington’s direction. The Italian electorate appears to be disapproving of a foreign policy perceived as overly aligned with Trump, and the radicalisation of his position is now pushing the Italian government to clarify its pro-European credentials, a painful evolution for a party whose Atlanticism has long been central to its identity.
The defeat may also exacerbate tensions already visible within the coalition, with uncertainty over the future direction of key parties, a risk of internal fragmentation and the growing strength of more radical right-wing forces. The government also risks becoming bogged down in internal disputes at a time when economic indicators are signalling a potentially deteriorating situation and the boost provided by the EU’s €190 billion recovery plan is gradually fading.
Meloni has said clearly she will not resign. But former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who himself resigned in 2016 after losing a constitutional referendum, warned that from this moment forward she is effectively a lame duck. “If beating Meloni in the referendum wasn’t easy,” he said, “it will be far easier to beat her on inflation, fuel taxes, the cost of living and public safety.”
The next general election is currently scheduled for September 2027. Whether it arrives on schedule, or considerably earlier, may be the most consequential open question in Italian politics right now.
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