Meloni describes outcome as a “missed opportunity to modernise Italy”, in a setback for the premier ahead of next year’s general election.
Italy’s prime minister Giorgia Meloni appeared on course for a narrow political defeat on Monday after exit polls suggested her flagship judicial reform referendum had been rejected by a slim majority of voters.
“The Italians have decided, and we respect this decision”, Meloni said in a video message on social media, expressing “regret for a missed opportunity to modernise Italy” but pledging to “move forward with determination, our commitment remains unchanged.”
The two-day ballot, which closed on Monday afternoon, asked Italians to approve a sweeping overhaul of the country’s justice system – a reform long cherished by Italy’s right and known as the Riforma Nordio after justice minister Carlo Nordio.
Exit polls from three separate polling organisations – SWG, Opinio and YouTrend – all put the opposition-backed No camp fractionally ahead, though the margin was narrow enough that final results remained uncertain.
According to separate surveys by SWG and Opinio on Monday afternoon, the No campaign secured between 49 and 53 per cent of the vote, compared with 47 to 51 per cent for the government’s Yes campaign.
A second poll gave 51.5 per cent to No and 48.5 per cent to Yes – a knife-edge outcome that underscored just how polarised Italian society has become over the future of its judiciary.
What the reform would have changed
The reform proposed amending Italy’s constitution in several significant ways. Most controversially, it would have permanently separated the career paths of judges and public prosecutors, ending a long-standing system that allows legal professionals to switch between the two roles.
It would also have split the High Council of the Judiciary – the powerful self-governing body that oversees the magistracy – into two distinct councils, one for judges and one for prosecutors, with members chosen by sortition, or lottery, rather than elected by their peers.
A new high disciplinary court would have been established to handle misconduct proceedings.
Meloni’s government argued that the changes were essential to bring impartiality and accountability to a justice system it characterised as antiquated, overly political and prone to overreach.
Critics, including magistrates and the opposition, thought otherwise. Elly Schlein, leader of the centre-left Partito Democratico (PD), argued the referendum was badly drafted and would weaken rather than strengthen judicial independence.
A referendum that became a verdict on Meloni
What began as a technical constitutional question rapidly evolved into a proxy vote on Meloni herself.
The reform passed parliament in October 2025 but failed to secure the two-thirds majority required to avoid a popular ballot, transforming it into a test of public confidence in the governing coalition.
For much of the campaign, Meloni kept a degree of distance from the Yes effort, wary of the reputational damage a defeat could inflict
Her right-wing party, Fratelli d’Italia, notably avoided using its symbol in campaign materials, in contrast to coalition partners Lega and Forza Italia.
However as polling tightened in the final weeks, she shifted strategy and threw herself behind the cause, warning voters in stark terms about the consequences of failure.
The campaign exposed the deep mutual animosity between Italy’s right-wing coalition and its judiciary – a relationship corroded by years of legal battles, blocked government policies, and accusations of political bias flowing in both directions.
The courts have repeatedly obstructed Meloni’s efforts to process migrants offshore in Albania, halted plans for a bridge linking Sicily to the mainland, and ordered the government to pay damages over the detention of migrants rescued at sea.
For the prime minister’s allies, the referendum represented a long-overdue opportunity to rebalance that relationship.
Turnout far higher than expected
One of the most striking features of the vote was the level of public engagement, attracting a turnout of around 59 per cent – the highest figure for any Italian referendum in more than two decades.
The strong participation suggested that, whatever the result, Italians were paying attention.
Political consequences
A defeat does not compel Meloni to resign. Her mandate runs until 2027 and she has repeatedly pledged to see it through, dismissing suggestions to the contrary.
Analysts say the defeat, even if it is narrow, weakens Meloni and her coalition, while giving the opposition a morale boost ahead of elections expected in 2027.
Photo credit: Massimo Todaro / Shutterstock.com.
